james-cook-g.jpg
USATSI

Of all of James Cook's highlight-reel touchdowns in the 2024 season -- and there were plenty -- his best was tied for his shortest. On fourth-and-goal from the Chiefs' 1-yard line in the AFC Championship, the Bills running back took a speed option pitch from Josh Allen, avoided a diving Justin Reid and somehow, propelling himself forward with his left arm, stretched the ball across the goal line while being crunched by Nick Bolton. Buffalo led, 22-21 in Kansas City late in the third quarter, 17 minutes and 56 seconds away from a Super Bowl appearance.

That was as good as it would get for the Bills. The Chiefs rallied in the fourth quarter for a 32-29 win, and Cook's heroic performance of 134 total yards and two touchdowns was relegated to side note, rather than headline.

That, apparently, is as good as it's been for Cook's relationship with the Bills since, too. Cook wasn't present at the first day of Bills OTAs as he seeks a contract extension ahead of the final year of his rookie deal, and he wasn't present for any of the team's voluntary work earlier in the offseason, either.

Bills coach Sean McDermott didn't seem too concerned about his Pro Bowl running back's absence, saying that Cook and the team have been in contact, adding, "James will be here when he's ready to be here and we move forward," via ESPN.

So when, exactly, will Cook be ready, and when, exactly, will things move forward? In February, Cook told Shannon Sharpe and Chad Johnson's "Nightcap" podcast, "I just want to get what I deserve." That came shortly after Cook took to Instagram Live to say he's looking for $15 million per year. That would tie him with Derrick Henry for the third-highest average annual value among running backs.

Highest-Paid RBs (Team)Average Annual ValueTotal ValueGuaranteed

Saquon Barkley (Eagles)

$20.6M

2 years, $41.2M

$36M

Christian McCaffrey (49ers)

$19M

2 years, $38M

$24M

Derrick Henry (Ravens)

$15M

2 years, $30M

$25M

Jonathan Taylor (Colts)

$14M

3 years, $42M

$26.5M

Alvin Kamara (Saints)

$12.25M

2 years, $24.5M

$22.23M

Josh Jacobs (Packers)

$12M

4 years, $48M

$12.5M

Why Cook is seeking this much money

Cook actually had 300 fewer yards from scrimmage in 2024 than he did in 2023. Yet he made up for that with a whopping 18 touchdowns scored, including a league-high 16 rushing touchdowns. Cook's yards per carry went up from 4.7 to 4.9, and he didn't lose a single fumble.

James Cook
BUF • RB • #4
Att207
Yds1009
TD16
FL0
View Profile

The surface-level stats, though, reveal just a small part of why Cook feels like he deserves to be paid like a top-tier running back. After posting 2.76 yards per rush after contact in 2023, Cook jumped to 3.26 yards in that category in 2024, ninth among all players with at least 200 rushes and one spot above Barkley. Cook was significantly better against heavy boxes and out of the shotgun compared to the year before, too.

Using NFL Next Gen Stats, Cook posted 0.82 yards above expected per carry, sixth among all players with at least 200 rushes. That, too was up significantly from his 2023.

Cook's improvement as a power runner really showed up between the tackles. He averaged 5.1 yards on those carries after 4.1 in 2023.

Even with that improvement in power, Cook still has the slashing running style and long-speed burners to be among the league's most explosive players. He had nine plays of 20+ yards, three via receptions.

That's another area that's in Cook's favor: He is a premier talent among an offensive skill group very much lacking that. The Bills don't have a true No. 1 receiver. Slot ace Khalil Shakir led the team with 821 receiving yards, but was much more reliable than explosive. Buffalo's second-leading receiver was Keon Coleman with 556 yards. Cook was Buffalo's most explosive rusher and receiver.

Joey Bosa injured: Why Bills should be concerned with five-time Pro Bowler's latest setback
John Breech
Joey Bosa injured: Why Bills should be concerned with five-time Pro Bowler's latest setback

Combine that with the fact Cook is the type of player teams should want to pay, especially teams in the Bills' position. He is a homegrown talent who is clearly ascending. He is just 25 years old and has very little tread on his tires for a two-time Pro Bowler, both reasons an extension could age well. Cook's 239 touches last year ranked 22nd among running backs. The year before, when he posted 1,567 yards from scrimmage at just 24 years old, he was still just 10th in touches among all running backs. He wasn't used much as a rookie and never had more than 140 touches in any of his four years at Georgia.

All this comes at a time when the Bills are bona fide Super Bowl contenders. Do the Bills really want to squabble over a few million dollars for a young, ascending player who could play a huge role in helping them lift the Lombardi Trophy? Cook averaged over 100 yards from scrimmage in the postseason last year and had big performances in several of Buffalo's key regular-season wins.

Why Bills might not want to give it to him

Arguing against the value of a star player you want to keep around may seem strange, but that's what sports front offices do. They can't pay every player what they want every time. That's why negotiations happen.

Referring back to the chart above, $15 million per year is a lot of money for a running back. The two players above it -- Barkley and McCaffrey -- are every-down superstars, and the one at $15 million -- Henry -- is an early-down workhorse unlike anything the NFL has seen before.

Cook's numbers in that area don't measure up.

James Cook in 2024Rank among RB
Offensive snap pct45.2%29th
Pct of team's rushes42.2%24th
Pct of team's rush yds45.2%21st
Scrimmage yds1,26721st

Even considering several blowout wins, Cook had just one game all season -- the season opener, in fact -- in which he played 60% of the offensive snaps. He played just 45.2% of Buffalo's offensive snaps in the AFC Championship. Allen, of course, is a big reason. He's the team's short-yardage battering ram, and his dual-threat ability meant the Bills ran the sixth-most plays without a running back in the backfield in 2024.

Furthermore, the Bills clearly saw a split backfield as a boon. Cook is clearly a very gifted player and above-average pass catcher for the position, but he finished third in his own backfield in third-down touches in 2024. Ty Johnson, who Allen called the best third-down back in the NFL, had 17 third-down touches, and Ray Davis had 10. Cook had nine. Both Johnson and Davis return. It's clear Buffalo likes using all three backs, and Allen handles a significant rushing load as well, so treating Cook like he's a workhorse top-tier No. 1 is a disconnect.

And while Cook showed major improvement, he was 21st among running backs in scrimmage yards last year. His comparatively small workload is worth noting, of course, but it's something that impacts his value, too. Cook did rank seventh in yards per touch (5.3) among players with at least 200 touches, but that number wasn't near Barkley (6.0) or Henry (6.1).

Regarding the 18 touchdowns, there's certainly some regression coming. According to CBS Sports Research, since 2020, just four running backs have jumped from six or fewer touchdowns one season to 18 or more the next. Only one of those four -- Austin Ekeler --reached double-digit touchdowns the next season.

Cook's expected touchdowns value in 2024 was 11. He vastly outproduced that. Cook's side will argue that's what stars do: outperform what's expected. The Bills will argue it was an outlier not indicative of what's to come, and regression will likely hit, even if he continues to produce above expected because of his talent. After all, Buffalo is paying for the future, not the past.

What could new Cook contract look like?

Cook isn't asking to be paid like Barkley or McCaffrey, so those are out of the picture. He is asking to be paid like Henry, though that would seem like the very high end.

Taylor might be a good place to start. Taylor, like Cook, was a second-round pick who became disgruntled with his contract entering his third year. Taylor had superior stats, but he also had a worse injury history. He played in just 11 games in 2022, the year before his contract dispute, due to an ankle injury that required surgery. It's also important to note Cook has not held out -- OTAs are voluntary -- nor has he asked for a trade or drawn the ire of the team owner, all things Taylor ended up doing. Unlike Taylor, Cook's production has helped contribute to a Super Bowl contender, too.

One on hand, that helps Cook's case. On the other hand, if the Bills truly believe he'll show up when needed, he might not get that extension he wants.

Cook is 25. Taylor was 24 when he signed his extension. The current highest-paid running backs are significantly older, and the salary cap rising helps Cook's prospects. While the Bills are short on cap space, they can move around money if they so choose, and Cook's extension wouldn't kick in until 2026 anyway. Money should not be too much of an issue. If the Bills want to get this done, they can.

Cook wants $15 million per year. Taylor, a more accomplished but more injured back who had a more contentious offseason ahead of his extension, got $14 million. Cook landing a three-year extension at between $13 million and $14.5 million per year seems to be a reasonable landing spot, and perhaps the Bills throwing in added guarantees would get the trick done.