2025 NFC North futures: What our projection model says about betting the Lions, Packers, Vikings and Bears

The NFC North was the best division in the NFL last season, as three of the four teams recorded 11 or more wins. However, each of those three clubs stumbled in the postseason, losing in their first playoff games.

The most disappointing defeat was by the Detroit Lions, who lost to the Washington Commanders in the divisional round after setting a franchise record with 15 victories and earning the No. 1 seed in the conference. In 2025, Detroit will be seeking its third consecutive division title despite losing its offensive and defensive coordinators to head coach positions elsewhere in the league.

Another team in the NFC North facing change is the Minnesota Vikings, who finished one game behind the Lions by virtue of a loss in their showdown in the regular-season finale and went on to lose to the Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card round. Quarterback Sam Darnold had a career season before imploding in those two contests and departed for a lucrative deal with the Seattle Seahawks, leaving the starting job to J.J. McCarthy. Selected 10th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, McCarthy had his rookie campaign come to a premature end due to a torn meniscus suffered in a preseason game.

The Green Bay Packers also faded down the stretch in 2024, losing their final two regular-season contests before falling to the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round. And the Chicago Bears experienced growing pains with 2024 first overall draft pick Caleb Williams under center, finishing with five wins - two fewer than they posted the previous year.

Despite their disheartening end to 2024 and the changes on the sidelines, the Lions are favorites to win their third consecutive division title. They are +140 favorites to finish atop the NFC North. Green Bay (+280), Minnesota (+475) and Chicago (+500) are longshots.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, already has crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has projections on each team's win total and chances to win the division, the NFC and the Super Bowl. And based on the odds being offered at sportsbooks, there is value to be had.

NFC North division futures and model projections

The SportsLine Projection Model believes the Packers will unseat the Lions and win the NFC North and would consider anything better than +155 odds a value play. Most of the sportsbooks have Green Bay over that price, with the best (+280) being at both Caesars and BetMGM. That implied probability at +280 is 26.3%, which is below the model's simulation of 39.2%, meaning the Packers are good value at that number according to the model.

Even though the model is high on Green Bay, it does see value with Minnesota. According to the model, the Vikings are +264 to win the NFC North. All of the sportsbooks have Minnesota over that price, with the best (+475) being at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Green Bay Packers futures

• Win total model projection: 10.7
• Best market win total odds: Over 9.5 (+110, FanDuel)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 77.0% (-335)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: -108 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win NFC: 18.4% (+443)
• Best market odds to win NFC: +1000 (Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 9.7% (+931)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +2500 (BetMGM)

The model is high on the Packers this season, which means there's value all over the board. The best value according to the model, is +2500 to win the Super Bowl, which can be found at BetMGM. The model sees anything above +931 as a positive play. Also, most sportsbooks have Green Bay at +1000 to win the NFC, while the model thinks +443 is fair. While -108 on the Packers to make the playoffs is value based on the model's projection of 39.2%, a bettor still has to wager $108 to win $100 and lock up that money for months to do so.

Detroit Lions futures

• Win total model projection: 10.4
• Best market win total odds: Under 10.5 (-110, DraftKings)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 71.8% (-255)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: -230 (Caesars, DraftKings)
• Model sim% to win NFC: 17.0% (+488)
• Best market odds to win NFC: +450 (Caesars, BetMGM)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 9.3% (+975)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +1000 (DraftKings)

Considering they have won back-to-back NFC North titles and were the top seed in the conference last season, there isn't any value in betting on the Lions to win the division, make the playoffs or win the NFC. However, one wager worth considering is Detroit to win the Super Bowl, as it is +1000 to capture the Lombardi Trophy at DraftKings. That is a positive play considering the model has the Lions doing so 9.3% of the time, which equates to +975 odds.

Minnesota Vikings futures

• Win total model projection: 10.0
• Best market win total odds: Over 8.5 (-120, FanDuel)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 64.5% (-182)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: +148 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win NFC: 8.5% (+1076)
• Best market odds to win NFC: +1800 (BetMGM)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 3.6% (+2678)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +3500 (BetMGM)

Barring another disastrous preseason, McCarthy is expected to make his NFL debut as the team's starting quarterback this year, which means there is plenty of value on the Vikings to be found. Perhaps the best value, according to the model, is +3500 to win the Super Bowl, which can be found at BetMGM. The model sees anything above +2678 as a positive play. BetMGM also has Minnesota at +1800 to win the NFC, while the model thinks that +1076 is fair. In addition, the Vikings are +148 to make the playoffs at FanDuel. That's a positive play since the model has Minnesota making the playoffs 64.5% of the time, which equates to -182 odds.

Chicago Bears futures

• Win total model projection: 7.3
• Best market win total odds: Under 8.5 (+125, BetMGM)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 14.9% (+571)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: +164 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win NFC: 0.3% (+33233)
• Best market odds to win NFC: +2000 (BetMGM)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0.1% (+99900)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +3900 (FanDuel)

The model is down on the Bears even though they made moves to shore up the offensive line in order to better protect Williams, who was sacked a league-high 68 times last season. Chicago also figures to be more dynamic offensively under new head coach Ben Johnson, who was in charge of one of the NFL's most potent units in Detroit from 2022-24. But according to the model, there is no value in betting on the Bears to make the playoffs, win the NFC or win the Super Bowl. However, one wager worth considering is Under 8.5 wins, which is +125 at BetMGM. The model projects 7.3 wins for Chicago.