Free MLB home run picks, odds for May 31: Francisco Lindor among best bets for Saturday HR player props

The Detroit Tigers have been among the most impressive teams in the MLB so far this season, and they will try to extend their five-game winning streak at Kansas City during the Saturday MLB schedule. Riley Greene has been at the forefront of Detroit's success, hitting his 13th home run of the season on Friday night. The latest MLB home run odds list Greene at +420 to go yard on Saturday, down from +560 earlier in the day as he faces Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha. Our model loves Greene to homer for the second straight game at more than 4-1 odds.

Every team in the majors is in action on Saturday, so there are plenty of home run props to evaluate. Any first-time users interested in putting together MLB home run picks today can also enhance their experience with the latest DraftKings promo code or Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, just to name a few. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks and betting strategy. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 21.35 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 53 days after hitting two home run bets on Thursday. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog, and you can also see Saturday MLB player props here. 

Best MLB home run picks for Saturday, May 31:

• Riley Greene, Tigers (originally +560, now +420)
• Francisco Lindor, Mets (+520)
• Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (+500)
• Parlay these picks for +23660 odds at FanDuel (odds subject to change)

Riley Greene, Tigers (originally +560, now +420)

The 24-year-old has hit 12 of his 13 home runs against right-handed pitchers, and he is facing another righty in Wacha on Saturday. Wacha has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit .287. Greene has hit safely in three of his last four games, including a three-hit performance against San Francisco on Tuesday. 

"FanDuel is offering a great price considering the consensus line is +410 for Greene to hit a homer," SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. "While Wacha has been really good at home this season, the weather is expected to be hitter friendly with the home run index at an 8 out of 10." You can check out the latest FanDuel promo code here:

Francisco Lindor, Mets (+520)

Lindor went 3-for-4 with two solo home runs in a 4-2 win over Colorado on Friday, going yard from both sides of the plate. It was his second multi-homer game of the season, giving him 12 total home runs this season. Lindor is batting .278 overall, but his average improves to .350 at Citi Field. He has recorded 10 of his 12 homers at home, and Rockies starting pitcher Antonio Senzatela leads the league in hits allowed (90). 

"The weather is expected to be a bit gloomy with a decent chance of rain and wind blowing left to right today, but the wind blowing left to right is better than blowing in," Fetner said. "We set the line at +350 for Lindor to home and if we downgrade a little with the weather, we would still have positive value at the +520 odds being offered." FanDuel has the best price again. If you want picks for the Phillies vs. Brewers game, you can find them here. 

Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (+500)

The veteran third baseman has excelled against left-handed pitchers throughout his career, and Rangers starting pitcher Patrick Corbin allows home runs at a high rate. Corbin has already given up nine long balls in nine starts this season after allowing 25 last season. Arenado has homered six times in 2025, with two of them coming in his last eight games. 

"Arenado has 59 plate appearances against Patrick Corbin and has a .892 OPS in his career against him," Fetner said. "There is a ton of familiarity between batter and pitcher here." BetMGM has the best price on Arenado, and you can enhance your value with a BetMGM promo code. However, the +500 line at FanDuel will be used for the parlay. If you want another parlay, the model has a three-leg parlay that pays more than 10-1.

Where to bet MLB props on Saturday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Saturday:

More MLB picks for Saturday

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Matt Severance, who is on a 133-68 roll on baseball picks. SportsLine's Bruce Marshall is also 33-25 (+1482) over his last 58 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in picks for Saturday.