MLB picks: Reds-Pirates odds, predictions for May 19 from proven model
The Reds have won four in a row while the Pirates try to recover from a sweep. Check out the SportsLine Projection Model's best bets for Reds-Pirates

The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates begin a three-game series Monday in a matchup of NL Central rivals heading in opposite directions. The Reds have won four in a row and are 4.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the division lead, while the Pirates are coming off a sweep at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies and sit 17 games below .500. The Reds swept the Pirates in the first series of the season. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40, with the game being shown nationally on FS1.
Nick Lodolo (3-4, 3.42 ERA) will take the mound for Cincinnati while Pittsburgh counters with Mitch Keller (1-5, 4.15 ERA). Lodolo has been struggling of late, giving up 22 hits and 12 runs over his last three starts. His hits allowed line at DraftKings is set at 5.5 (Over +120, Under -170) and his ERA line is set at 2.5 (Over +115, Under -155). Keller has not won a start in over a month, giving up 18 runs over his last six outings. His hits allowed line is also 5.5 (Over -120, Under -115) and his ERA line is also 2.5 (Over -120, Under -115). Neither pitcher took the mound in the first series between these teams. Lodolo and Keller are both also set at O/U 5.5 strikeouts. Lodolo's Over is -105 and his Under -125. Keller's Over is -120 and his Under is -110.
Elly De La Cruz, who leads the Reds with eight home runs, has the shortest odds to go yard Monday at +475. Pirates star Oneil Cruz, who also has eight home runs on the season, is an intriguing longshot play at +800. Austin Hays (+550), Andrew McCutchen (+650) and Bryan Reynolds (+700) are other notable sluggers to potentially back to hit a home run in this contest.
First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET from PNC Park. The Reds are -119 favorites (wager $119 to win $100) on the money line in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, while the Pirates are -101 (wager $101 to win $100) underdogs. The total comes in at 8. You can get the model's latest projections, along with expert picks for Reds-Pirates, at SportsLine.
Here are the SportsLine model's projections for Reds-Pirates Monday.
CINCINNATI REDS at PITTSBURGH PIRATES | 5/19 | 6:40 p.m. ET
Money line
Pick: Reds -119
Cincinnati wins in 55% of simulations
Run line
Pick: Pirates +1.5 (-171)
Pittsburgh covers in 61% of simulations, bringing value at these odds
Over/Under
Pick: Over 8
The Over hits in 62.2% of simulations
Projected score: Reds 5.3, Pirates 4.7