How Rafael Devers trade impacts postseason odds for Giants and Red Sox
After a blockbuster trade that sent Rafael Devers to San Francisco, the 2025 outlooks for the Giants and Red Sox look much different

The Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants shocked the MLB world on Sunday with the news that star slugger Rafael Devers was heading from Beantown to the Bay Area in a blockbuster trade that also sent two pitchers and two prospects to Boston.
Devers is in his ninth MLB season despite being 28 years old and is in the second year of a 10-year, $313.5 million megadeal. But his relationship with the Red Sox, the only organization he'd ever been a part of until this week, soured over the offseason when Boston signed third baseman Alex Bregman. Devers had been a full-time third baseman for Boston entering this year and didn't want to move off third base to play another position or DH full-time. After an injury to Triston Casas, the Red Sox reportedly approached Devers about playing first base, which didn't go over well. Despite the relationship turmoil, Devers has been enjoying another stellar year at the plate with an OPS over .900. At the time of the trade, he led all American League DHs in All-Star voting.
Now, the three-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger joins a Giants team that, almost certainly, will not play Devers at third base given they have all-world defender Matt Chapman, though he is on the injured list at the moment. Devers debuted with the Giants on Tuesday at DH and picked up two hits and an RBI. And get your popcorn ready, as Devers faces his former team this Friday in San Francisco.
The Red Sox enter Thursday 38-37 and in fourth place in the AL East. The Giants are 41-32 and are in second place in the NL West and hold a Wild Card spot. How does the Devers trade impact both teams moving forward? Here's what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say, as well as sportsbook odds.
Giants get boost with Devers
The Giants entered Wednesday third in team ERA but 15th in runs scored. The addition of Devers should naturally help their relatively average lineup, as he's driven in 80 or more runs five times, including three 100-RBI campaigns. In 74 games played in 2025, he has 59 RBIs. He's also stellar at getting on base with a career batting average of .279 and an on-base percentage of .349. He has a .401 on-base percentage thanks to 56 walks, which ranks second in MLB behind New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto.
The addition of Devers has helped the Giants in model simulations, with their expected win total jumping from 87.8 to 89.0. Additionally, San Francisco's odds of winning the NL West went from 9.8% to 13.8%, and the team's odds of making the postseason increased from 60.8% to 67.5%. The Giants haven't appeared in the NLCS since 2014, which was also the franchise's last World Series appearance and title. The Giants make the NLCS in 5.2% of simulations (up from 3.3%) and make the World Series in 2.4%, which is twice as much as their previous odds at 1.2%.
The Giants were already seen as a playoff contender due to the team's strong pitching staff, which is anchored by Logan Webb and a resurgent Robbie Ray, but the addition of Devers has given San Francisco a slight boost in their World Series odds. Prior to the trade, the Giants were +3200. They're currently +3100, which is the ninth-shortest odds in baseball and sixth in the National League.
Red Sox stumble
The Red Sox were already one of baseball's more disappointing teams at this stage of the season before trading an All-Star slugger across the country. Boston was seen as a prime playoff contender in a relatively weak and wide-open American League in 2025, and while the latter part has certainly been true, the former hasn't quite come to fruition just yet. Boston has played better of late and entered Wednesday a game over .500, but the Red Sox are fourth in the AL East and don't currently hold a Wild Card spot.
Offensively, the Red Sox will naturally take a dip without Devers, who was key in Boston ranking third in the American League in runs scored. The Red Sox have Bregman to star at third base, but he's on the injured list. Casas is out for the year. Jarren Duran, who was eighth in AL MVP voting a year ago, has an OPS roughly 100 points lower than in 2024. Boston's No. 3 hitter on Monday and Tuesday was Roman Anthony. Yes, he's baseball's top prospect, but those were his sixth and seventh career games.
The SportsLine model has Boston's win total decreasing from 82.2 to 81.6 as a result of this trade, and the Red Sox have also seen their playoff odds decrease across the board. Their odds of winning the AL East are down from 1.3% to 1.2%, their playoff odds in general are now 28.8%, down from 31.7%, and their odds of making the ALCS and World Series are now 1.3% and 0.5%, respectively. The Red Sox are now +4000 to win the World Series at FanDuel, which is 14th in MLB and seventh in the American League.
As mentioned, the American League is wide open, with 12 of 15 teams either holding or within 2.5 games of a playoff spot. That can certainly help the Red Sox and their hopes of making a playoff run this year, but there's no doubt their short-term outlook is worse without Devers than with him.