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The Oklahoma City Thunder are just one win away from the team's first NBA title since moving from Seattle. But if the Thunder want to close it out on Thursday night, they'll have to do so on the road against the Indiana Pacers. Oklahoma City has had its fair share of struggles on the road this postseason, as it has gone 1-8 against the spread in road playoff games during this run. The Pacers have a major question of their own, as Tyrese Haliburton suffered a right calf strain in Game 5, and his status for tonight's Game 6 is up in the air.

Here are the NBA best bets and player props for Game 6 of the NBA Finals from the SportsLine Projection Model. New bettors who are intrigued by NBA betting can also check out the DraftKings promo code, where you can earn $300 in bonus bets if you win your first bet of at least $5.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC

SportsLine Projection Model's top picks

The last time these two teams played in Indiana, the Pacers were leading by seven points after three quarters and were just 12 minutes away from taking a 3-1 series lead over the Thunder. Instead, the Thunder evened the series at two games apiece after a late comeback and now return to Indiana just one game away from history. 

Pacers role players have had their moments this series, and the SportsLine Projection Model has a couple of their props graded at 3.5 stars. Toppin is averaging 11.4 points this series and has put up 29 points over the past two games, however he has gone Under his rebounding prop in four of his past six games when the Pacers have been home underdogs facing a top-10 defense. Mathurin led Game 3 with 27 points after coming off the bench, and he's gone Over his points prop in six of his past eight games when the Pacers have been getting points at home and going up against a top-10 defense.

The Thunder are -246 (wager $246 to win $100) on the money line, while the Pacers are +203 (wager $100 to win $203). The model sees some value with the underdog winning outright, with Indiana extending the series to a Game 7 in 38% of simulations. The total has dropped to 221.5 after opening at 224.5. You can see the model's latest projections, along with expert picks for Thunder-Pacers Game 6, at SportsLine.

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